Thinking about starting a small DCA into UOB, but I’m also tempted by just keeping cash in high-yield accounts or rolling short T‑bills. I’m toying with a simple rules-based “barbell” approach that switches each month between buying UOB shares or buying a T‑bill, based on two signals: UOB’s price-to-book and a short-rate like 3M SORA or 6M T‑bill yield. Has anyone tried something like this?
A few beginner questions I’m hoping the community can help with:
- Valuation quick-checks: For Singapore banks, people often use P/B vs ROE. What through‑cycle ROE would you assume for UOB, and what P/B bands would you consider “accumulate,” “hold,” or “trim” in a simple rule? Any easy way to estimate a reasonable cost of equity for a local bank?
- Early warning indicators: If I only have time to scan quarterly updates, which 3-5 metrics would you watch to avoid value traps? Thinking NIM trend, fee income momentum, cost‑to‑income, CET1 vs management target, NPL ratio and allowance coverage, CASA mix, loan‑to‑deposit ratio. Any rule-of-thumb thresholds that would make you pause buying?
- Dividends and capital: When CET1 is above target, do UOB historically lean toward higher ordinary dividends, specials, or buybacks? Any level of excess capital that’s been a reliable tell for a payout bump?
- Rates rolling over: If short rates fall, my savings account yield and bank NIM both drop. From a personal finance angle, is there still a diversification benefit to owning UOB versus just sitting in T‑bills/high‑yield cash? Has anyone backtested a simple switch rule like “buy UOB when P/B < X and 3M SORA < Y, otherwise buy T‑bills”?
- Practical DCA: For small amounts, how do you deal with SGX board lots and odd-lot liquidity, plus minimum commissions? Any brokers or auto‑invest options that make DCA into SG blue chips cost‑effective without overpaying fees?
- Ex‑dividend behavior: Do SG banks typically drop by about the full dividend on ex‑date, and what’s the rough recovery pattern, if any? Curious if that matters for timing small buys.
- Business mix: With the Citi consumer acquisitions in the region, what should a newbie watch in terms of integration costs rolling off, fee income uplift, and credit quality? Any line items that signal the synergy story is or isn’t working?
- Risk scenarios: How material are exposures like China property, regional consumer credit normalization, or a higher countercyclical buffer from MAS? What would these realistically do to dividends and P/B in past cycles?
If you’ve attempted a simple rule that toggles between UOB and T‑bills (or cash) using just a couple of public signals, I’d love to hear your thresholds and lessons learned. I’m not after a fancy model-just something a beginner can follow without overthinking.
