A lot of folks lump “tech” together, but for an asset-light player like OnMobile the real choke points aren’t chips; they’re distribution and compliance. The fragility is in telco contracts, app stores, cloud regions, and data rules.
Supply chain = infra + distribution. The playbook is operator diversification (avoid single-country revenue >20%), multi-cloud/multi-region (pre-provisioned capacity to fail over), mirrored content catalogs with region-specific licensing, and modular compliance (GDPR/DPDP/data residency toggles). Also pre-negotiated step‑in/exit clauses with telcos and CDNs to pivot fast if a market shuts.
Markets react fast to clear exposure, slow when the link is fuzzy. Small/mid-cap names see a knee‑jerk gap on headlines, then a multi‑day drift as brokers publish exposure notes or management guides on calls. Liquidity amplifies it.
Short pain can turn into a tailwind: app bans, data localization, or “China+1” vendor policies have repeatedly shifted share to local or non‑Chinese providers. Local content mandates and telco preference for domestic partners can offset lost geographies.
Hedging is mostly boring but effective: FX forwards/NDFs (LATAM/AFR), natural hedges by matching local opex to local revenue, invoicing in USD where possible, sanctions/KYC screening to avoid receivable traps, political-risk insurance for state-linked telco receivables, and cyber/contingent business interruption coverage tied to specific cloud regions.
What to actually check: revenue by country/operator concentration, currency mix and hedge cover in the annual report, data residency architecture (multi-region or not), and contract clauses around sanctions/force majeure. Event risk shows up in those footnotes long before it shows up in price.
If you want a rabbit hole: Caldara-Iacoviello’s Geopolitical Risk index and the Economic Policy Uncertainty index papers, plus company risk sections and earnings call Q&A, map pretty cleanly to 1-3 day abnormal returns in this space.